Research
My current research interests are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and macroeconomic implications of energy and climate.
Selected work
Publications
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Optimal simple objectives for monetary policy when banks matter
European Economic Review paper Bank of England working paperBrief Abstract
This paper studies welfare-optimal monetary policy when financing frictions constrain the supply of bank credit. In an estimated euro-area model, a simple flexible inflation-targeting rule that also considers resource use and a financial variable delivers welfare close to fully optimal policy.
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Climate change: possible macroeconomic implications
Read the articleBrief Abstract
The article reviews how the physical effects of climate change and the transition to a net-zero economy may affect UK output and inflation. It considers the longer-term macroeconomic setting for monetary policy and outlines possible policy considerations amid substantial uncertainty.
Current and past work
Working Papers
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Intertemporal pass-through
Revise and Resubmit at the Review of Economic Studies
Read the paperBrief Abstract
Using UK firm-level survey data and news from the 2019 announcement of a possible no-deal Brexit tariff schedule, this paper estimates how firms’ reset prices respond to expected future marginal costs. Pass-through varies with firms’ price-adjustment frequency, the timing and size of cost shocks, and pricing behaviour. A model shows how this heterogeneity makes aggregate inflation more forward-looking.
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Carbon Prices, Energy Markets, and the Macroeconomy
Brief Abstract
This paper studies how carbon-pricing shocks affect UK inflation and economic activity through energy markets. Using a new high-frequency carbon-policy surprise series and a monthly proxy SVAR, it finds that carbon-price increases raise energy and core consumer prices and reduce real activity. The results point to fuel switching between coal and gas as an important channel amplifying the macroeconomic effects of carbon pricing.
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Orders of Importance: Gas, Renewables and the Macroeconomy
Brief Abstract
Natural-gas price shocks have amplified macroeconomic disruption because gas-fired plants often set wholesale electricity prices under merit-order pricing. Using high-frequency news about unplanned UK nuclear and interconnector outages as an instrument, we find that renewable intermittency shocks already raise inflation and reduce growth. A New Keynesian model shows how risks shift through the energy transition: gas shocks dominate today, but intermittency can create sharper price spikes as gas plants balance renewables. With wider renewable generation and storage, exposure to both gas and renewable supply shocks eventually falls.
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De-anchoring of Inflation Expectations
Brief Abstract
An abstract for this working paper has not been provided yet.
Completed work
Completed Projects
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Revisiting the effects of long-term unemployment on inflation: the role of non-linearities
Read the paperBrief Abstract
The paper shows that estimates of the separate effects of short- and long-term unemployment on inflation need to account for non-linearity in the Phillips curve. Reductions in long-term unemployment can be strongly inflationary when overall unemployment is low, so long-term unemployment remains relevant to measures of economic slack.
Earlier projects
Inactive Projects
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Liquidity and Monetary Transmission: A Quasi-Experimental Approach
Paper pageBrief Abstract
Using bank liquidity positions created by a regulatory regime and detailed UK mortgage data, this paper studies how liquidity affects credit supply and monetary transmission. It finds that more liquid banks charge slightly higher mortgage rates, pass changes in risk-free rates through less, and take more mortgage risk. The results also speak to the choice between conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools.
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Beyond Inventory Management: The Bullwhip Effect and the Great Moderation
Brief Abstract
This paper studies whether changes in business practices helped explain the Great Moderation. It extends the analysis beyond inventory management to include supply-chain management and backordering, and finds that reduced backordering and shorter lead times can explain a meaningful share of the decline in output volatility.
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Competition Effects of Financial Shocks on Business Cycles
Brief Abstract
This project studies a competition channel through which financial shocks affect business cycles. It focuses on the extensive margin of investment—the range of goods firms produce—and examines how credit contractions can affect firms’ product variety.
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Macro & Micro Identification of the UK Phillips Curve
Brief Abstract
An abstract for this working paper has not been provided yet.