Research

My current research interests are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and macroeconomic implications of energy and climate.

Selected work

Publications

  1. Optimal simple objectives for monetary policy when banks matter

    European Economic Review paper Bank of England working paper
    Brief Abstract

    This paper studies welfare-optimal monetary policy when financing frictions constrain the supply of bank credit. In an estimated euro-area model, a simple flexible inflation-targeting rule that also considers resource use and a financial variable delivers welfare close to fully optimal policy.

  2. Climate change: possible macroeconomic implications

    Read the article
    Brief Abstract

    The article reviews how the physical effects of climate change and the transition to a net-zero economy may affect UK output and inflation. It considers the longer-term macroeconomic setting for monetary policy and outlines possible policy considerations amid substantial uncertainty.

Current and past work

Working Papers

  1. Carbon Prices, Energy Markets, and the Macroeconomy

    Brief Abstract

    This paper studies how carbon-pricing shocks affect UK inflation and economic activity through energy markets. Using a new high-frequency carbon-policy surprise series and a monthly proxy SVAR, it finds that carbon-price increases raise energy and core consumer prices and reduce real activity. The results point to fuel switching between coal and gas as an important channel amplifying the macroeconomic effects of carbon pricing.

  2. Orders of Importance: Gas, Renewables and the Macroeconomy

    Brief Abstract

    Natural-gas price shocks have amplified macroeconomic disruption because gas-fired plants often set wholesale electricity prices under merit-order pricing. Using high-frequency news about unplanned UK nuclear and interconnector outages as an instrument, we find that renewable intermittency shocks already raise inflation and reduce growth. A New Keynesian model shows how risks shift through the energy transition: gas shocks dominate today, but intermittency can create sharper price spikes as gas plants balance renewables. With wider renewable generation and storage, exposure to both gas and renewable supply shocks eventually falls.

  3. De-anchoring of Inflation Expectations

    Brief Abstract

    An abstract for this working paper has not been provided yet.

Completed work

Completed Projects

  1. Revisiting the effects of long-term unemployment on inflation: the role of non-linearities

    Read the paper
    Brief Abstract

    The paper shows that estimates of the separate effects of short- and long-term unemployment on inflation need to account for non-linearity in the Phillips curve. Reductions in long-term unemployment can be strongly inflationary when overall unemployment is low, so long-term unemployment remains relevant to measures of economic slack.

Earlier projects

Inactive Projects

  1. Liquidity and Monetary Transmission: A Quasi-Experimental Approach

    Paper page
    Brief Abstract

    Using bank liquidity positions created by a regulatory regime and detailed UK mortgage data, this paper studies how liquidity affects credit supply and monetary transmission. It finds that more liquid banks charge slightly higher mortgage rates, pass changes in risk-free rates through less, and take more mortgage risk. The results also speak to the choice between conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools.

  2. Beyond Inventory Management: The Bullwhip Effect and the Great Moderation

    Brief Abstract

    This paper studies whether changes in business practices helped explain the Great Moderation. It extends the analysis beyond inventory management to include supply-chain management and backordering, and finds that reduced backordering and shorter lead times can explain a meaningful share of the decline in output volatility.

  3. Competition Effects of Financial Shocks on Business Cycles

    Brief Abstract

    This project studies a competition channel through which financial shocks affect business cycles. It focuses on the extensive margin of investment—the range of goods firms produce—and examines how credit contractions can affect firms’ product variety.

  4. Macro & Micro Identification of the UK Phillips Curve

    Brief Abstract

    An abstract for this working paper has not been provided yet.