Policy Writings

Research for a wider audience

A selection of Bank Underground and Bank Overground posts on inflation, monetary policy, energy and climate.

Topical analysis

Bank Underground

Bank Underground is a blog for Bank of England staff to share views that challenge – or support – prevailing policy orthodoxies.

  1. Has UK food inflation been under the weather?

    Brief Abstract

    The post estimates how global weather shocks affect UK food inflation. A new high-frequency measure indicates a delayed effect, with food prices responding most strongly about a year after a shock.

  2. Tomorrow’s costs, today’s prices: why expectations matter for inflation

    Brief Abstract

    Using firm-level survey data around the 2019 announcement of a temporary tariff schedule, the authors estimate how expected future input costs affect prices today.

  3. What happens to inflation when we put a price on carbon?

    Brief Abstract

    The post studies the inflation effects of the UK carbon market. Using a high-frequency measure of carbon-policy supply shocks, the authors find tighter pricing temporarily raises energy prices and inflation while lowering output.

  4. Some implications of climate policy for monetary policy

    Brief Abstract

    Using structural climate macroeconomic models, the authors examine how mitigation policies can create direct shocks, how expectations shape their effects, and how different policies change the transmission of other shocks—all relevant to monetary policy over a three-to-five-year horizon.

  5. How broad-based is the increase in UK inflation?

    Brief Abstract

    The post develops an underlying-inflation measure from comovement across disaggregated prices, including energy, food and core items, to assess how broadly the recent UK inflation increase has spread.

Policy analysis

Bank Overground

The purpose of Bank Overground is to share internal analysis. Each bite-sized post summarises a piece of analysis that supported a policy or operational decision.

  1. How will spare capacity in the economy affect inflation?

Each linked post carries the publication’s own attribution and views statement.